Sunday, September 9, 2012

Michael McDonough Trash Index Is It Garbage?

The trash index is perceived to be a very simple concept. The more an economy consumes and produces the more trash we will generate. Here is the most recent chart of the Trash index relative to United States GDP.

What a lot of economists find alarming is the divergence toward the right side of the chart where the trash index has gone down and United States GDP has gone up. This scares some economists who choose to use trash as a leading indicator. However is it a backward looking number just like GDP. Quite frankly I view this chart differently than most economists, I see it as a positive going forward. I think it represents what has happened with the shift in the economy, consumers are consuming less, and corporations are more profitable than ever.

How are corporations more profitable than ever you ask? It's simple. They are producing less trash! Corporations have learned how to run leaner in every business dynamic: Implementations of stricter ordering policies for raw materials to produce goods, not hiring more employees than absolutely necessary, conversion to paperless workplace environments, in a nutshell the concept of "doing more with less" has been achieved with high degree of success across all levels of the American corporate infrastructure. 

The concept of "doing more with less" has also taken the American consumer by storm too. Everything from carpooling rates going up, to the number of people who are taking a bicycle to work increasing, the increased demand for fuel efficient vehicles, to maximizing the number of meals that can be made from a cooked chicken. In virtually every facet of the American consumer lifestyle drastic changes for increased efficiency and less waste have been made across the board. I haven't found any statistics to prove it, but i'd be willing to bet the usage of "hand me downs" has increased tremendously. 

Being an optimist I view the "doing more with less" concept as a positive sign for the economy. As long as we have positive GDP growth and America continues to add jobs we will have stronger corporations with higher profits and financially stronger Americans. It's all in how you view buying power. American consumers in the future could eventually evolve into people that have money leftover after they get their paychecks and pay their bills versus the Americans of 2008 whose paychecks were completely spent before their employers put it in their hands. 

It all comes down to the concept of quantity versus quality! Chasing quantity with ridiculously low profit margins is part of what sent the American economy into a tailspin. Now we have companies that are more profitable than ever and doing it with lower revenues. And that's how it should be in my opinion. Now hopefully the American consumer can get to the point of having money ready to spend for tomorrow, instead of their entire paycheck going to the expenses of the yesterday with no money left for the expenses of tomorrow.



Saturday, September 1, 2012

Why I Am Long The Stock Market Short Term

I am currently long equities in the short term for the following reasons:

1. Performance chasing trumps fundamentals. Even if fundamentals don't merit a rise in equity prices, there comes a point in time at which fund managers have to chase performance to keep their jobs. I haven't met a fund manager that chose to not participate in market rallies and risk losing his job because macro-economic fundamentals don't merit a rise in equities. Currently the market is up approximately 4.5%  since the July 4th low of 12492 on the DJIA and approximately 8% since the June 4th low of 12035 on the DJIA.

2. The "Fed Put" and the lesser discussed "Draghi Put". Economic leaders will continue to prop up markets by making vague statements about federal intervention to stop the economy from sinking further. Economic leaders will not allow the market's drug addicted like craving for federal easing to go unsatisfied.

I am long for the short term AG - First Majestic Mining, HL - Hecla Mining, SPY - SPDR S&P 500 ETF.






Thursday, August 23, 2012

Stock Markets To Potentially Go Down Another 1.5 Percent

This has been a market climbing a wall of worry for the past 3 weeks. Companies that missed on revenues and beat on earnings have been handsomely rewarded for the past 3 weeks. It appears the pendulum has now gone the other way. As the markets climbed the wall of worry all the way up to resistance of 13,330 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DIA) and 1,426 on the S&P 500 (SPY), stocks with similar quarterly reports of lighter than expected revenues and better than expected earnings are now getting crushed.

Recent earnings casualties are Big Lots Inc. (BIG), Guess Inc. (GES), Aeropostale Inc. (ARO), Best Buy Inc. (BBY), Hewlett Packard Inc. (HPQ), Dell Computers  Inc. (DELL), Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM), Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR), and Autodesk Inc. (ADSK).

Gold(GLD) and Silver(SLV) have also recently broken out to new highs. Volatility is finally coming back in to the market as we've now had our second 110+ point trading range on the DJIA and the VIX is now firmly over 15. As of the close of today's trading, the S&P has now pulled back approximately 1.7% from the recent market highs but is still up approximately 9.5% since July 1st. I personally am looking for approximately another 1.5% downside in the market. I believe fund managers will then step in fiercely to defend their potential 8% return for this current quarter ending in September.

I am personally shorting individual stocks at this time with put options. I will remain short until the S&P 500 reaches my estimate of 1386.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Get ready to trade stocks, trades to keep an eye on

Today was the first day we've seen any kind of volatility in the markets for a couple weeks now. Most of the stocks on my watchlist are either at support or resistance levels. I believe these stocks will either break out or break down soon.

GMCR is hitting resistance at $25 per share. (If break out occurs gap to $41 needs to be filled.)

ULTA is hitting resistance at $92 with more resistance at $96.

NFLX is hitting resistance around $66 - $67 per share.(If break out occurs, gap to $77 needs to fill.)

BWLD is running into resistance at $75 per share.(Break out occurs, gap to $77 needs to fill)

FIRE is running into resistance at $51 per share.(If break down occurs, gap to $37 needs to fill.)

SBUX is running into resistance at $48 per share. (If break out occurs, gap to $49.60 needs to fill.)

LVS is running into resistance at $42ish. 






Saturday, August 18, 2012

CNN Fear and Greed Index indicates Extreme Greed

The CNN Fear and Greed Index has 7 indicators: Safe Haven Demand, Put and Call Options, Junk Bond  Demand, Market Momentum, Stock Price Strength, Stock Price Breadth, and Market Volatility. The index currently has an overall rating of "Extreme Greed" scoring a possible 79 out of 100 points. The Safe Haven Demand, Put and Call Options, and Junk Bond Demand indicators all have a rating of "Extreme Greed". Market Momentum, Stock Price Strength, and Stock Price Breadth indicators all have a rating "Greed". Market Volatility is the only indicator not rated rated "Extreme Greed" or  "Greed". Click here to see CNN Fear & Greed Index more in depth ratings.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Possible Shift into Late Bull Market Sectors


It looks like we are entering a late bull market cycle. So far this rally in the market has been lead by early bull market sectors. Housing (XHB), Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Financials (XLF) have lead this rally so far. As evidenced by the year-to-date S&P 500 (SPY)comparison chart below. 

The late bull market sectors: Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), HealthCare (XLV), and Utilities (XLU) have all begun to close the gap on early bull market sectors in the last 90 days. Indicating a possible shift to the late bull market. As evidenced by the chart below.

This could also be indicative of performance chasing by fund managers in search of stocks that haven't been priced to perfection yet. Either way it looks like it is time to get defensive and to start taking money off the table as just about every early bull market stock chart will be approaching resistance.